Research

Working Papers

• "Trade Barriers and Imbalances in Small Open Economies," March 2024 (joint with A. Cuñat).
  featured in Chapter 1 of the 2023 IMF External Sector Report

• [New!] "Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade," R&R Canadian Journal of Economics, March 2025 (joint with S. Hakobyan and S. Meleshchuk).
  IMF WP 2023/270; featured in Chapter 4 of the April 2023 IMF World Economic Outlook

• "International Value-Added Linkages in Development Accounting," Under Review, December 2019 (joint with A. Cuñat).
  CESifo WP 7196; VoxEU article (non-technical); Uni Wien Medienportal (non-technical, in German)

• "Gravity across Space and Time," December 2015 (joint with M. Klasing, and P. Milionis).

Refereed Publications

• "Bilateral Trade Imbalances," Review of Economic Studies, vol. 91(3), pp. 1537-1583 (joint with A. Cuñat).
  Final WP version; IMF WP 2022/090; CESifo WP 7823; VoxEU article (non-technical)

• "The (Structural) Gravity of Epidemics," European Economic Review, vol. 144, May 2022 (joint with A. Cuñat).
  Final WP version; Online appendix; CESifo WP 8295; Covid Economics 17

• "Friends Without Benefits? - New EMU Members and the 'Euro Effect' on Trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 83, pp. 75-92, May 2018 (joint with A. Mika).
  Final WP version; CESifo WP 6308; ESE Focus paper (non-technical)

• "Specialisation Patterns, GDP Correlations and External Balances," CESifo Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pp. 141-161, June 2017 (joint with A. Cuñat)
  Final WP version (prepared for the CESifo-Delphi conference on "Current Account Adjustments")

• "Factor Proportions and the Growth of World Trade," Journal of International Economics, vol. 95(1), pp. 42-53, January 2015.
  Final WP version; Longer post-Job-Market version

• "Banks' Liquidity Buffers and the Role of Liquidity Regulation," Journal of Financial Services Research, vol. 48(3), pp. 215-234, December 2015 (joint with C. Bonner, and I. van Lelyveld).
  Final WP version; VoxEU article (non-technical)

• "Sovereign Default, International Lending and Trade," IMF Economic Review, vol. 63(3), pp. 365-394, September 2012.
  Final WP version; ESE Focus Paper (non-technical)

Non-Refereed Publications & Other Economics Writings

• [New!] "Sharing the Road," Finance & Development Magazine, December 2024.

• "Back to Basics: Total Factor Productivity," Finance & Development Magazine, September 2024.

• "What Will Happen if Global Trade and Mobility are Permanently Reduced?," Economics Observatory, July 2020.

• "What Happens to Trade in a Global Downturn?," Economics Observatory, May 2020.

• "'Levelling Up' the UK Economy - Lessons from the Evidence," UK Industrial Strategy Council blog, February 2020.

• "Scotland's 'Middling' Productivity - An International Perspective," Fraser of Allander Institute blog, December 2018 (joint with M. Mitchell)

• Review of "Europe Isn't Working" (L. Elliott and D. Atkinson), Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 55(1), pp. 227-229, March 2017.
  Final WP version

• "Stock Returns after a Brexit Vote: The Winners and Losers," LSE Politics & Policy, June 2016 (joint with C. Milas, and T. Worrall)

• "Debating a Scottish Currency," University of Edinburgh Scottish Referendum blog, May 2013.